ANC Looks Set to Share Power After South Africa Election

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Damian Zane and Natasha Booty

  1. Posted at 15:5815:58Smiles amid the pressure at results centreSouth Africans are transfixed by what’s happening at the national results centre, but inside the huge conference hall it seems the delegates are able to share a joke.Despite the pressure he’s under, ANC Chairman Gwede Mantashe, known for his jovial demeanour, has been having what look like friendly chats with some of his rivals.Here he was pictured talking to members of the MK, including the daughter of ex-President Jacob Zuma, Duduzile Zuma-Sambudla:Gwede Mantashe, chairman of the African National Congress (ANC), right, and Duduzile Zuma-Sambudla, daughter of former South African President Jacob Zuma, center, at the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) national results center in Midrand, South Africa, on Friday, May 31, 2024.Getty ImagesCopyright: Getty ImagesAnd here is Mr Mantashe with Herman Mashaba, leader of ActionSA:Gwede Mantashe, chairman of the African National Congress (ANC), left, speaks with Herman Mashaba, leader of ActionSA, right, at the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) national results center in Midrand, South Africa, on Friday, May 31, 2024Getty ImagesCopyright: Getty ImagesOther party leaders are attracting a large amount of media attention – not least the main opposition leader John Steenhusien of the DA:Leader of the Democratic Alliance (DA), South African main opposition party, John Steenhuisen (C) speaks with the media at the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) National Results Center in Midrand on May 31, 2024AFPCopyright: AFPAnd all eyes are glued on the huge results board, which displays the numbers as soon as they come in:The voting results board at the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) national results center in Midrand, South Africa, on Friday, May 31, 2024Getty ImagesCopyright: Getty ImagesArticle share tools
  2. Posted at 15:4015:40ANC has definitely lost its parliamentary majority – analystFarouk ChothiaBBC News, JohannesburgWith counting over in 71% of voting districts, the ANC’s share of the vote is standing at 42%.So, it is clear that the party stands no chance of crossing the magical 50% mark to win an outright majority in parliament.This is according to political analyst Sanusha Naidoo, who told the BBC the only question now is whether the ANC will reach 45%.”It’s not about the party getting to 50%, but getting to 45%,” she said.The main opposition Democratic Alliance is trailing with 22%.Former President Jacob Zuma’s MK party is currently in third spot with 12% of the vote, pushing Julius Malema’s Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) into fourth spot.And that is very significant. It shows that MK has landed political blows on the ANC and the EFF. It has proved to be the game-changer in this election.But let’s wait for the final result to see whether the EFF can claw back to third spot – and salvage some of its reputation.Article share tools
  3. Posted at 15:2915:29DA power-sharing deal is in nation’s best interest – leaderCatherine ByaruhangaBBC News, South Africa election results centreJohn Steenhuisen is interviewed by the BBC's Catherine Byaruhanga.BBCCopyright: BBCDA Leader John Steenhuisen outlined his priorities to the BBCImage caption: DA Leader John Steenhuisen outlined his priorities to the BBCSouth Africa’s main opposition DA party is positioning itself as the sensible choice for a stable power-sharing partner.Right now, it has the second-biggest share of the votes counted and verified so far, behind the ANC which is struggling to reach the 50% threshold needed to govern alone.”There comes a time when you have to put the country’s interests first, and you need to act in the best interests of the country,” DA Leader John Steenhuisen told the BBC.”I think instability is not in the best interest of the country, a coalition with the radical left in South Africa of the MK party and the EFF will produce the same policies that destroyed Zimbabwe, destroyed Venezuela.”Jacob Zuma’s MK party and Julius Malema’s EFF are likely to be the third and fourth-biggest parties respectively. Both organisations reject claims that their economic plans would destroy South Africa’s economy.Setting out his stall early, the DA leader has also outlined his non-negotiable policies if an alliance with the ANC is reached:Quote Message: Respect for the rule of law and the constitution, a social market economy that treats the private sector as partners in the growth agenda… Zero tolerance for corruption and cadre deployment, and an absolute laser-like focus on economic policies that grow jobs.” from Democratic Alliance (DA) Leader John SteenhuisenRespect for the rule of law and the constitution, a social market economy that treats the private sector as partners in the growth agenda… Zero tolerance for corruption and cadre deployment, and an absolute laser-like focus on economic policies that grow jobs.”Democratic Alliance (DA) Leader John SteenhuisenMr Steenhuisen also told the BBC he would have to consult pre-election coalition partners before considering any negotiations.He said that he thinks the ANC is still in shock over its electoral showing, and wondered if President Cyril Ramaphosa would survive as party leader of the ANC.Earlier on Friday, the deputy secretary-general of the ANC told journalists that Mr Ramaphosa would not be resigning.Article share tools
  4. Posted at 15:0515:05South Africa on the verge of a new political eraEver since the first democratic election in South Africa in 1994, the ANC has been the dominant political force.Under Nelson Mandela it led the struggle against white-minority rule and he became the country’s first democratically elected president.As you can see from the chart below, the ANC’s support actually grew until the high-water mark of 70% in 2004.Since then it has steadily declined, but up until now it had never dipped below 50%.This time round – if the current trends persist – it will get well below that figure.Bar chartBBCCopyright: BBCArticle share tools
  5. Posted at 14:4814:48Zuma’s revenge on the party that removed himAnne SoyBBC News, JohannesburgVideo contenthttps://emp.bbc.com/emp/SMPj/2.52.1/iframe.htmlVideo caption: Jacob Zuma: South Africa’s former president talks to the BBCJacob Zuma: South Africa’s former president talks to the BBCThe role of ex-President Jacob Zuma in shaping the outcome of this election cannot be underestimated.His newly formed MK party has achieved stunning success, so far taking 12% of the votes announced at the expense of the ANC.But he is still a member on the ANC – albeit suspended.Speaking just before Wednesday’s vote, the former president told the BBC that he “would not allow” the liberation party to stay in the hands of its current leadership, “that’s why I remain a member”.He said the party that he “suffered” for and “went to prison” for, referring to the 10-year jail sentence he served on Robben Island along with Nelson Mandela, was no longer recognisable under its current leader, Cyril Ramaphosa.”I’ve got the problem with the leadership of the ANC, not with the ANC itself or its membership.”He was however reluctant to discuss the prospect of entering into a post-election pact with the ANC.”I don’t want to talk about the future, I can say the wrong thing here,” he said, “the people of this country are going to decide – they’ll give the answer.”As the country braces for coalition negotiations, it’s safe to conclude that the 82-year-old former president has had his revenge on the party that had prematurely ended his presidency by giving him an ultimatum to step-down after removing him as party leader at the end of 2017.This was at the height of the allegations of corruption and state capture which rocked his office and the party.He continues to deny all allegations.Article share tools
  6. Posted at 14:3514:35Where things stand as of nowElection officials at the official centre in Midrand.AFPCopyright: AFPResults are being tallied at the official centre in MidrandImage caption: Results are being tallied at the official centre in Midrand
    • Nearly 70% of votes have been counted and verified nationally
    • If current trends persist the ruling ANC could fail to win a parliamentary majority for the first time in 30 years
    • So far, the ANC has 42% of votes nationally but must reach 50% to be able to govern the country alone
    • If it fails to reach that number, the ANC will have to form a coalition government with one one or more smaller parties
    • Trailing behind are the DA on 23%, MK party on 12%, the EFF has 10% and the IFP has 3%
    • Political deals will be made behind the scenes, but the ANC could be open to power-sharing with the DA and IFP
    • Fractious relations with ex-President Jacob Zuma may make a deal between his MK party and the ANC unlikely
    • A regional swing in KwaZulu-Natal province sees the MK party win twice as many votes as the ANC
    • Voters canvassed in a survey were mostly content but some said long queues undermined their trust
    Article share tools
  7. Posted at 14:2414:24When will we know the final result?The electoral commission is sticking to its self-imposed deadline to announce the final result.Addressing the media, Sy Mamabolo, the chief electoral officer, said it would be known “some time over the weekend”. He had previously said Sunday was the likely day.Legally, the commission has seven days from polling to finish the process.Historically, South Africans have been used to knowing the outcome by the Saturday after the election. But, because this time around people were casting an extra vote, counting and verifying are expected to take longer.Article share tools
  8. Posted at 14:0914:09Unemployment was a big issueOne of the possible reasons behind the marked decline in the ANC’s support could be the state of the economy.Unemployment, which has hit young people particularly hard, has remained stubbornly high.As the graph below shows, it has barely recovered from its peak during the pandemic and currently nearly a third of South Africans who are looking for work are unable to find a job.And more than 44% of 15 to 34-year-olds are not in education, training or employment.Like many African countries, South Africa has a young population – a majority of the country’s 62 million people are under 35.Graph showing unemployment rateBBCCopyright: BBCArticle share tools
  9. Posted at 13:5613:56ANC loses outright majority in Northern CapeFarouk ChothiaBBC News, JohannesburgThe results coming in are getting worse for the ANC.With all the votes counted and declared, the party has lost its outright majority in Northern Cape – a sparsely populated province which has Kimberly as its biggest city – a place where British colonialist Cecil John Rhodes made his fortune from its diamond fields.In the vote for its provincial legislature, the ANC got 49% followed by the DA’s 21% and the EFF’s 13% – these shares are also reflected in the Northern Cape’s vote for the national parliament.We don’t yet have the final result from South Africa’s two biggest provinces – Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal. But the ANC is expected to lose its outright majority in Gauteng, while it is likely to be pushed into second spot in KwaZulu-Natal by the breakaway party led by former President Jacob Zuma.So, there would probably be coalitions in at least three of South Africa’s nine provinces – along with a coalition at national level.Article share tools
  10. Posted at 13:4213:42Kenyatta outlines what makes a good coalitionAnthony IrunguBBC NewsKenya's then-president, Uhuru Kenyata, on state visit to South Africa in 2021.Getty ImagesCopyright: Getty ImagesKenya’s former leader Uhuru Kenyatta made a state visit to South Africa while president in 2021Image caption: Kenya’s former leader Uhuru Kenyatta made a state visit to South Africa while president in 2021Kenya’s ex-President Uhuru Kenyatta has waded into South Africa’s election debate, saying party leaders should learn from the “good and bad” examples of past coalition governments in his home country and elsewhere on the continent.As vote counting continues after Wednesday’s general election, the governing ANC is in the lead but so far falling short of the 50% of votes needed to govern alone. Its leaders will therefore be mulling who to make a deal with, and how.”I can only wish them well and hope that the leadership will take this decision by the people in a positive frame,” said the former Kenyan president, who is now leading the African Union election observer mission in South Africa.A coalition government must focus on areas of agreements instead of their differences for the benefit South Africans, he added.”At the end of the day, [when] you look at the different manifestos they’re all talking about the same thing – better housing, better water supply, better education, better infrastructure.”Article share tools
  11. Posted at 13:2813:28DA aims to keep ‘radical’ parties out of governmentFarouk ChothiaBBC News, JohannesburgJohn Steenhuisen, leader of the Democratic Alliance (DA), speaks to the media at the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) national results center in Midrand, South Africa, on Friday, May 31, 2024Getty ImagesCopyright: Getty ImagesDA leader John Steenhuisen has also been talking on TV here in South Africa, talking about a coalition government.He said the party’s priority was to keep “radical” parties out of government.That is a reference to the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and uMkhonto weSizwe (MK), both of whom support the nationalisation of land and key sectors of the economy.Mr Steenhuisen’s comments suggest he has not ruled out a coalition with the ANC.A person familiar with what is happening behind the scenes told me that both the ANC and the DA are under pressure from the business sector – and their donors – to form a coalition government.The DA is a centre-right party, which advocates greater privatisation and the phasing out of the minimum wage, which it sees as an obstacle to job creation.Article share tools
  12. Posted at 13:1913:19ANC official raises issues with a DA dealFarouk ChothiaBBC News, JohannesburgGwede Mantashe, chairman of the African National Congress (ANC), at the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) national results center in Midrand, South Africa, on Friday, May 31, 2024.Getty ImagesCopyright: Getty ImagesGwede Mantashe is at the results centre watching the tallies come inImage caption: Gwede Mantashe is at the results centre watching the tallies come inAddressing coalition building in a media interview, ANC chairperson Gwede Mantashe hinted that the his party is unlikely to choose the DA as a partner.He said there would have to be “policy alignment” between parties to a coalition agreement.For the ANC, its black empowerment policies – aimed at giving black people a stake in the economy following their exclusion during the racist apartheid era – were “non-negotiable”.He also cited the National Health Insurance (NHI) Bill, which President Cyril Ramaphosa signed into law just before the election.Mr Ramaphosa said the ANC could not have a partner which will oppose its implementation.The DA opposes both the NHI and the ANC’s black empowerment policies.The NHI promises universal health care for all, but the DA warns that the scheme could be hugely expensive and fuel corruption.It also says there needs to be “wholesale change in empowerment policies, to move away from race-based policies that enable elite enrichment, towards policies that fundamentally break down the system of deprivation that still traps millions of South Africans in poverty”.Read more: Why National Health Insurance Bill is controversialArticle share tools
  13. Posted at 13:0413:04Results so farA general view shows the result board at the National Results Operation Centre of the Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC), which serves as an operational hub where results of the national election are displayed, in Midrand, South Africa, May 31, 2024.ReutersCopyright: ReutersThe electoral commission has now announced two-thirds of the count. Here are how the top five parties currently stand:
    • ANC – 42%
    • DA – 23%
    • MK – 12%
    • EFF – 10%
    • IFP – 3%
    The vote shares have barely moved since the last time we updated you three hours ago when nearly 60% of the results were in.The seats in the 400-member National Assembly directly reflect the share of the vote that each party receives.The new MPs then go on to elect the next president. As things look now, some form of coalition will need to be agreed in order for a president to be elected.Article share tools
  14. Posted at 12:3312:33’I don’t know’ – ANC official on Ramaphosa’s futureOne of the most senior leaders in the ANC – Gwede Mantashe, the party’s chairperson – has just been on Newzroom Afrika, a local TV station.He was asked about the future of President Cyril Ramaphosa, if the party ends up with around 42% of the vote.”I don’t know,” Mr Mantashe replied.He went on to say that parliament will decide – either it will elect him for a second term, or it will not.Mr Mantashe is a close ally of Mr Ramaphosa, and serves in the outgoing government as Minister of Mineral Resources and Energy.Article share tools
  15. Posted at 12:0512:05Who could form a coalition?Farouk ChothiaBBC News, JohannesburgA woman at a pre-election Democratic Alliance (DA) rally.Getty ImagesCopyright: Getty ImagesThe DA is one of the parties the ANC may courtImage caption: The DA is one of the parties the ANC may courtAny coalition deal at national level would be influenced by what happens in the provinces – especially the most populous ones of Gauteng, home to Johannesburg and Pretoria, and KwaZulu-Natal.One possibility would be a coalition between MK and the ANC in both KwaZulu-Natal and nationally – but given the fractious relations between the two parties, that appears unlikely.Instead, the ANC could try to offer the DA and IFP a deal that would see the three parties governing jointly at national level, and in KwaZulu-Natal.”The DA and IFP have kept that option open in order to keep the EFF and MK out of government,” says the South African Mail & Guardian newspaper’s KwaZulu-Natal correspondent, Paddy Harper.The DA’s support appears to have grown in this election, with the party having regained the votes of white people who had backed a party to its right in the last election, and some black people who felt it needed to be given a chance in national government.The ANC’s other option is try to form a coalition with the EFF in the national government, as well as in Gauteng, where the ANC is also set to lose its outright majority.ANC leaders in Gauteng, backed by Mr Mashatile, are said to prefer a coalition with the EFF.Mr Malema, a former ANC youth leader, is apparently open to the idea.Read more on this here.Article share tools
  16. Posted at 11:5211:52Polls went smoothly but queues tested voter trust – surveyRafieka WilliamsBBC News, JohannesburgVoters wait in line outside the Yeoville Recreation Centre polling station in Johannesburg on 29 May.AFPCopyright: AFPVoters who had to queue for a long time on Wednesday have less confidence that their vote will be counted.That’s the finding of a survey by South Africa’s Human Science Research Council (HRSA) – an academic body that seeks to assess the “voters’ voice” and has been monitoring the public’s election sentiments since 2009.Despite some voters’ complaints, however, this year’s general election has by and large gone smoothly, says the HRSA.Their research is based on a survey conducted at 300 stations across all nine provinces in the country.On Wednesday a number of complaints posted on social media showed the queues voters had to endure, but the survey found only 31% of those surveyed were dissatisfied with the electoral body’s service on the day.HSRC Director Benjamin Roberts said 60% of voters only had to wait 15 minutes to vote, while 11% waited over an hour to cast their ballot.”The queuing time did have an effect on voter satisfaction on election day,” Mr Roberts said.Article share tools
  17. Posted at 11:3511:35Durban has been left to decline under the ANC – residentSenzo Mkhize, a resident or Durban, talks to reporters.ReutersCopyright: ReutersWith 44% of votes of KwaZulu-Natal and counting, the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party has achieved extraordinary success despite launching only a few months before the polls.The province is the heartland for the party of the country’s former President Jacob Zuma and has been key to its national success.”I’m very pleased with what the MK has done during the 2024 election especially here in KZN (KwaZulu-Natal),” resident Senzo Mkhize told the Reuters news agency.”I work here in Durban, and one can see that the municipality has given up and they have let things be,” he says.”It used to be a very beautiful city, but since the municipality is under the ANC things are not good.”MK currently sits third in the national vote count.Article share tools
  18. Posted at 11:1511:15How would a coalition be formed in South Africa?The constitution does not spell out how a coalition could be formed – but as the seats in the 400-member National Assembly directly reflect the proportion of votes, some sort of agreement between parties to get over 50% of the seats looks very likely.The ANC is set to remain the largest party, and the maths might still allow it to make agreements with a host of smaller parties to get support.Or, if the ANC’s support remains around 42% it may have to enter a formal coalition with some larger parties (the DA, EFF or MK), including a written agreement outlining legislative plans and the distribution of cabinet posts.Prior to the general election, an opposition coalition had also been mooted.In a pre-election deal, a group of parties – led by the DA – signed up to the Multi-Party Charter for South Africa. This deal did not include the MK or EFF, so it looks very unlikely that this coalition would get over the required 50%.Article share tools
  19. Posted at 10:5210:52Ramaphosa will not resign – ANCCatherine ByaruhangaBBC News, MidrandJournalists gathered around a politicianBBCCopyright: BBCPresident Cyril Ramaphosa will not be resigning as ANC leader after what are projected to be bad election results for the the party, ANC Deputy Secretary-General Nomvula Mokonyane told journalists here at the national counting centre.When she was asked about any coalition negotiations, she said that for now the party was not talking to anyone.She added that there would be an ANC leadership meeting later today to discuss the results so far.A press conference will then be held on Saturday afternoon.Article share tools
  20. Posted at 10:3910:39Zuma heartland spurns ANC as local issues biteNomsa MasekoBBC News, DurbanA tap is used to fill a big water bottle.Getty ImagesCopyright: Getty ImagesThere’s been no tap water in parts of KwaZulu-Natal for 10 monthsImage caption: There’s been no tap water in parts of KwaZulu-Natal for 10 monthsThe political wildcard in this election has been the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party led by former President Jacob Zuma.There’s no doubt he’s preparing to flex his muscles as the kingmaker here in his home province of KwaZulu-Natal where the MK party has wrestled a huge chunk of votes from the ANC.Formed just a few months ago, results so far show that for the national election it has taken the largest share of the vote in the province – 44% to the ANC’s 19%.Local issues could have been a big factor in that shift with some community members telling me they were turning their backs on the ANC party because it had failed to fix acute water shortages.Parts of this province, such as Trenance Park which is a mere 20 minutes’ drive from the main city of Durban, have had no tap water for 10 months.Residents rely on water tankers that sometimes don’t deliver water on time.People in KwaZulu-Natal hope that whoever wins the 
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About the Author

Varney Kamara

Varney Kamara is a freelance Liberian journalist. In 2009, Mr. Kamara began his journalism career as a mainstream journalist, working for The Analyst, New Democrat, the Diary, and the DayLight environmental online newspapers in Monrovia. Kamara holds BA in Mass Communication from the state -run University of Liberia(UL). Prior to freelancing, he served in several newsroom capacities including Proof-reader, Desk Editor, News Editor, Staff Writer, Senior News Editor, and Contributing Writer for several local and international media outlets. Kamara has also obtained several media certificates in environmental journalism, investigative journalism, science and health reporting, crime and justice reporting, and more. From March 2023 to March 2024, Kamara served as Project Officer and Senior News Editor of iLab Liberia's Fact-Checking Desk on the NDI "Countering Disinformation in Liberia's 2023 Elections Project."

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